As stated by Loretta Lynch, former US Attorney General, “Voting is how we participate in a civic society- be it for president, be it for a municipal election. It’s the way we teach our children – in school elections – how to be citizens, and the importance of their voice.” 

As the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country located in West Africa, and the world’s sixth-most populous country, with a population of over 225 million, and comprising 36 states head to the Polls on Saturday, February 25 2023, the eyes of the entire world and Africa continent rests on the country described by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook Growth Projections as an emerging market and developing economy; but by many political observers as being “at a critical juncture”; with terrorism, insecurity, banditry, insurgency, corruption, and the twin-challenges of unemployment and economic hardships, considered paramount issues. 

As highlighted above, the outcome of this month’s elections will go a long way to determine the short, medium and long-term prospects for countries such as Ghana, Africa and the world, as security in the sub-region, the future of democratic and accountable governance, and economic transformation of the Continent, all appear to be on the ballot. 

Profiles of Candidates 

Atiku Abubakar (PDP)

The 75-year-old PDP Candidate is contesting for the presidency of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for the sixth time, with his first attempt in 1992. Mr. Atiku served two terms as Vice President to former President Olusegun Obasanjo; and is credited for his role and efforts at ensuring increased private sector investment and participation in Nigeria’s economy, but not without allegations of corruption which he refutes. Mr. Atiku has stated that once elected, his cardinal foreign policy shall be cordial relationship with all countries and blocs in West Africa and Africa, with regional security and collaboration – center of his foreign policy agenda; representing an idealistic foreign policy objective. 

Peter Obi (LP)

The Labor Candidate is a former governor of south-eastern Anambra state, where he possesses some positive governance record which has influenced his mass appeal and political movement in Nigeria. As former Vice-Presidential Candidate to PDP Candidate, Atiku Abubakar in the 2019 Elections, Mr. Peter Obi has indicated that the focus of his foreign policy agenda shall be to first build a virile economy and conquer poverty before moving out of his shores to help other countries, representing a more realistic foreign policy objective, one akin to the Trump Policy agenda of “America First”. 

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC)

The APC Chieftain, a former senator in the early 1990s and former two-term governor of the Lagos state, where he is credited with attracting foreign investment and improving transport services is contesting the presidential election for the first time, on the ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). For his Foreign Policy, Mr. Tinubu believes “To be fully secure at home, Nigeria has always believed it must be the brothers’ keeper…I am convinced, as I am sure most of us are, that the broad principles that enabled successive Nigerian governments to interface development and security, and establish an organic link between national security and economic development with regional peace and prosperity is both impeccable and remains relevant. It is an approach which I commit myself to upholding and advancing”. This ultimately represents an idealistic foreign policy objective.

Implications of Nigeria’s Elections for Ghana 

Crude Oil and Petroleum Prices considering current Policy of Gold for Oil

In January 1982, Nigeria’s President, President Shehu Shagari, cut off oil supply to Ghana in protest against the 1981 Revolution, leaving a terrific blow to Ghana’s Economy. It took negotiation to successfully restore crude oil supplies to Ghana. In 2001, President Kufuor who was part of the Team that successfully negotiated oil supplies with Nigeria in 1981 struck similar agreement with Nigeria under the leadership of President Olusegun Obasanjo. 

This long-standing relationship between Ghana and Nigeria could be key and further leveraged upon in light of the current Gold for Oil Policy by the Akufo Addo-Bawumia Government. Despite the policy of Gold for Oil, fuel prices continue to increase at the pump, leading to severe economic hardship for most Ghanaians. It is therefore clear that Gold for Oil although creative is not a sustainable policy proposition and alternative. As such, the next President of Nigeria will play a decisive and instrumental role in the economic fortunes of Ghana with respect to the extent of availability or otherwise of crude oil on the Ghanaian market. 

Impact on Tertiary Education, Immigration and Crime Rate in Ghana 

The 2023 Nigerian General election is anticipated to be a well rolled out electoral activity which would benefit the Nigerian populace and the entire African Continent. Whatever happens during and after the elections would have impact on Africa at large including Ghana. Each and every year, we have Nigerians trooping in to Ghana for greener pastures and some for the pursuit of tertiary education. Though these might be enough good reasons for migration, they could also pose as security threats and appear to increase crime rate in Ghana. 

No matter how sovereign Nigeria appears to be as a state, its electoral process is of great concern to Ghana because the outcome would impact Ghana. Depending on which presidential candidate emerges as a winner, his or her ideology or political approach would influence how best the Nigerian economy is going to be ran in the next four years. If it is ran better, we would find less number of Nigerians migrating to Ghana for greener pastures as well as pursuing tertiary education. On the issue of electoral process, a peaceful election rolled out fairly would not pose security challenges on neighbouring countries such as Ghana.

Also, with both Ghana and Nigeria having English as their official language, this means in a state of crisis which may result out of the election, Ghana is the first country Nigerians might be migrating to for safety reasons. Also, a country’s security could be at risk when there is a tendency of rising immigrant population especially when the population of illegal immigrants is on the rise in that particular country. Illegal immigrants could pose as law breakers which in the long run could give birth to an anarchical state especially where they have great influence on citizens of their host country. Thus, it would not be a fuss to say Nigeria has great influence on Ghana in so many ways. 

Implications of Nigeria’s elections for Africa

Decision to join AfCFTA 

Nigeria became the 25th African country to validate its national AfCFTA Implementation Strategy with the support of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). Hence, the choice of who becomes the next Nigerian President will go a long way to determine the extent of participation and economic benefits the decision to join the AfCFTA provides to Nigeria’s economy. As indicated above, should a realist President such as Labour Party’s Peter Obi emerge, Nigeria is likely to witness a slow and reduced start and participation in trading relations with respect to AfCFTA in the foreseeable future, as compared to increased involvement and participation if for instance APC’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu or PDP’s Atiku Abubakar were to emerge, due to their idealist policies, worldviews and historical background and track record. 

Restore Trust in Democratic and Accountable Governance throughout Africa 

Nigeria’s election is yet again another test case for the future of democratic and accountable governance in Africa. Looking at Nigeria’s population, economic viability, role and sphere of influence in the sub-region and Continent, this election would be a great opportunity for the country to restore trust in democratic and accountable governance throughout Africa. As such, the upcoming election must meet some required standards which reflect the true picture of democracy. In the first place, the upcoming election must reflect the will of the people: This means for every electoral result, the decision of the people must be evident enough. It should be an election devoid of both internal and external manipulations. Also, the election ought to be transparent enough ensuring that every citizen is carried along in the electoral process; with equal opportunities for members of each state to participate in the electoral process. 

Each and every eligible voter must not be denied the opportunity to make his or her democratic voice heard through casting of ballot. What we expect to see is Nigeria using this election as a yardstick to call for accountable governance by electing leaders who can be held accountable for every decision they make on behalf of their citizens. Restoring accountability also means electorates are to vote in a manner that truly reflect the efficiency of their leaders and electoral candidates. 

When all these are put in place, the 2023 National Elections in Nigeria can restore trust in Democratic and accountable governance throughout Africa. This is because recent events in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Guinea, and Sudan, among others, have led to most Africans losing hope or trust in democratic and accountable governance, as elections are sometimes considered mere formalities, in clear violation of Article 1.1 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). 

Addressing Insecurity in the Sub-Region 

Currently, Nigeria is perceived as insecure due to the existence of Boko Haram, an Islamist militant organization based in North Eastern Nigeria and some other parts of Africa such as Chad, Niger, Northern Cameroon and Mali. The outcome of this election would reveal the individual characteristics of the elected leader; and determine whether or not the president-elect would be able to handle issues in relation to the said terrorist organization. A security-conscious elected leader would be more eager to address the security concerns as opposed to a less security-conscious leader. Also, this would depend on whether or not the elected leader would be ready to sit down and negotiate issues with the terrorist group or not. By so doing, insecurity in the sub-region could be curbed. Once achieved, we can imagine the influence this would have in the sub-region looking at Boko Haram’s existence in other countries such a Chad, Niger, Northern Cameroon and Mali. 

Conclusion 

In conclusion, as stated by John Mellecker, “Leadership is the creation of an environment in which others are able to self-actualize in the process of completing the job.” – This will be both the charge and challenge of the next Nigerian President. In the end, the successful conduct of the upcoming Nigeria elections and its eventual outcome will go a long way to restore or otherwise Nigeria’s leadership, role and status as a power-house in the sub-region and on the African Continent. 

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The writer, Andrews Joojo Maxford, is an economic policy analyst, researcher and student of defence and international politics. Andrews has a Master of Arts degree in Economic Policy Management from the University of Ghana; and currently pursuing Master of Science degree in Defence and International Politics at the Ghana Armed Forces Command and Staff College (GAFCSC). Andrews has interest in Public Administration, Policy and Governance, and can be contacted via email at [email protected]. 

The writer, Sedinam Esi Wilson, has background in Political Science from the University of Ghana, Legon; and currently pursuing Master of Science degree in Defence and International Politics at the Ghana Armed Forces Command and Staff College (GAFCSC). Sedinam is an experienced Administrator with interest in Organizational Leadership and Governance. She is enthusiastic about Public Policy and Humanitarian Development, and can be contacted via [email protected].